Bangladesh Parties Brace For Elections

BNP-led alliance, headed by Khaleda Zia, is banking on anti-incumbency

Bangladesh has welcomed 2018 amid fears of political unrest ahead of a crucial general election. Anxiety over a possible return to political instability is growing as the country prepares to elect its 11th Parliament at the end of the year. Most political observers express the view that the 2018 elections are going to be fiercely contested as opponents of the ruling Awami League-led alliance are likely to use all their strengths to see to that the “secular pro-liberation” parties don’t return to power. The earlier election, in 2014, was held amid a violent boycott by Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its Islamist allies led by the Jamaat-e-Islami. One of the early indications of political instability is that the BNP-led alliance of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia has started pressing the same demand as earlier. Key BNP leaders say they would not take part in an election held under Sheikh Hasina as Prime Minister and call for a caretaker government to oversee the polls. The ruling Awami League, however, strongly maintains that it will remain in power in line with the country’s Constitution.

Violence in 2014

Four years ago, Bangladesh experienced a massive violence ahead of the elections. The BNP’s violent boycott then, analysts say, has proved to be a political mistake which has cost them dear. The opposition wants to avoid repeating the mistake. It is also banking on what it perceives as “a broader public antipathy” towards the government’s policies. However, it may suffer a setback if Khaleda Zia, who is facing graft charges, is convicted by the judiciary. The BNP and its Islamist allies believe that they will get the people’s mandate if the election is free and fair. Besides, they argue, the Awami League will face strong anti-incumbency. Key Awami League leaders said they are on guard against complacency as they traverse the political landscape. For the party to come to power for a third-consecutive term, they think, it needs to concentrate on an effective nationwide electoral campaign, resolve the intra-party conflicts, and choose the right candidates. The ruling party may face another challenge if H.M. Ershad’s Jatiya Party seeks to leave its alliance and battle it out on its own. The Hindu, January 4, 2018.

China-Japan Ties Could See a Revamp in 2018

Japanese PM Shinzo Abe to visit China: The ‘quad’ group of India, Japan, Australia and the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific may soon have a gaping hole as Tokyo and Beijing appear set to revamp ties in 2018. A Japan-China-South Korea leaders’ summit is planned in Japan early this year, followed by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s official visit to China, theNikkei Asian Review reported. The two events will open the door for Mr. Xi’s first official visit to Japan. Considerable groundwork has already been done to reset ties. Last week, Toshihiro Nikai, the ‘number 2’ in Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, met Chinese President Xi Jinping and invited him to visit Tokyo, the Kyodo news agency reported. In a rare address to the Communist Party of China (CPC) Party School, Mr. Nikai underscored that that the two countries must forge a future-oriented, cooperative relationship. Significantly, he backed joint forays by Beijing and Tokyo on infrastructure projects, in tune with Mr. Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative. The Chinese side has also showed enthusiasm for a Beijing-Tokyo re-engagement in 2018. The state-run China Daily paraphrased remarks by Song Tao, head of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee that Mr. Nikai’s call on the Chinese President shows the great importance that Mr. Xi has attached to China-Japan ties. Mr. Xi’s decision not to speak at the December 13 ceremony of the Nanjing massacre is also being read in sections of the Japanese media as a signal of China’s intent to build bridges with Mr. Abe’s government. The Hindu, January 4, 2018

Announces benefits for military personnel, public servants

Saudi Arabia announced on 6 January 2018 that it had boosted stipends and benefits for citizens to cushion the impact of economic reforms, including the kingdom's first ever taxes, after an oil price slump. Most working Saudi Arabians are employed by the State and, like nationals in other energy-flush Gulf monarchies, have long benefited from a generous welfare system. After the 2014 oil market crash, Saudi Arabia as well as the neighboring U.A.E. announced a 5% value-added tax on most goods and services which took effect at the start of this year. In a move that aims to "soften the impact of economic reforms on Saudi households," King Salman issued a royal decree late on Friday ordering a 1,000 riyal ($267, 222 euros) monthly living allowance for military personnel and public servants for a period of one year. Student stipends will be increased by 10%, an official statement said. The oil-rich Gulf has long been a tax-free haven for both high-income households and migrant labourers, who frequently rely on remittances to support their families back home. The Hindu, January 7, 2018

However, they demand proportionate political power and equal civil rights, including right to vote, in national and regional elections. As momentum ebbs for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, both sides are taking another look at the one-state idea. But that solution has long been problematic for both sides. For the Israelis, absorbing three million West Bank Palestinians means either giving up on democracy or accepting the end of the Jewish state. The Palestinians, unwilling to live under apartheid-like conditions or military occupation, have also seen two states as their best hope. Now, for the first time since it declared its support for a Palestinian state side-by-side with Israel in 1988, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) is seriously debating whether to embrace fallback options, including the pursuit of a single state. “It’s dominating the discussion,” said Mustafa Barghouti, a physician who sits on the PLO’s central council, which is to take up possible changes to the national movement’s strategy later this January.

Equal rights and power

Palestinian supporters envision one state with equal rights for Palestinians and Jews. Palestinians would have proportionate political power and, given demographic trends, would before long be a majority, spelling the end of the Zionist project. That outcome is unacceptable to the Israeli right-wing, which is pressing to annex the land on the occupied West Bank where Jewish settlers have built communities while consigning Palestinians to the areas where they live now. Israeli proponents of these ideas freely acknowledge that the Palestinian areas would be considerably less than a state, at least to start: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has even called it a “state-minus”. Eventually, they say, the Palestinians could achieve statehood in a confederation with Jordan or Egypt, as part of Israel, or perhaps even independently-but not soon. Both sides have long officially supported the idea of a two-state solution to the conflict while accusing the other of harbouring designs on the whole territory. But U.S. President Donald Trump’s Jerusalem declaration last month changed the calculus. Saeb Erekat, the veteran Palestinian negotiator, said that Mr. Trump’s declaration was the death knell for the two-state solution and that Palestinians should shift their focus to “one state with equal rights”. His position has since gained traction among the Palestinian leadership. Under that idea, the Palestinian movement would shift to a struggle for equal civil rights, including the freedoms of movement, assembly and speech, and the right to vote in national elections. “Which could mean a Palestinian could be the Prime Minister,” Mr. Barghouti said. To its Palestinian supporters, the one-state idea is bitter consolation after decades of striving for statehood under the Oslo peace accords, which many believe has achieved little aside from providing cover, and buying time, for Israel to expand settlements. The Hindu, January 8, 2018.

Central bank has already announced that it will use Yuan to settle bilateral trade

Already its “iron brother”, China now appears set for an even tighter embrace of Pakistan, following a possible slide in ties between Islamabad and Washington. An op-ed in the state-run tabloid The Global Times posted late on Sunday noted that China should pay more attention to the potency of its economic assistance to Pakistan “as ties are set to get closer amid hostility from the U.S.” 
Beijing the clear winner

An article in the Hong Kong based South China Morning Post (SCMP) had earlier noted “there is one clear winner from Donald Trump’s tweet tantrums this week: China, which suddenly finds its leverage over Pakistan multiplying as a result of the U.S. President’s mood swings”. The rise in anti-American sentiments in Pakistan appears to be conflating with the perception of China as a more reliable ally. This is notwithstanding the recent differences between Beijing and Islamabad regarding some of the financial aspects of a hydropower project under the omnibus $57-billion China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Soon after Mr. Trump’s tweet, Pakistan’s Central Bank swiftly announced that it would use the Chinese Yuan to settle bilateral trade and investment with China.

“The central bank’s decision is significant given Islamabad had been resisting this demand from China. But one tweet from Trump managed to achieve what months of intense pressure and lobbying from Beijing could not,” the SCMP article observed. Mr. Trump’s tweet also played into the hands of the religious-Right, now harbouring political ambitions in Pakistan’s elections later this year. The Hafiz Saeed-led Jamaat-ud-Dawah (JuD) demanded the expulsion of the U.S. Ambassador during street protests in Lahore. The Global Times article signalled that Pakistan would be justified in defining a new geopolitical calculus that covers China and Russia. “In these circumstances, it makes perfect sense for Pakistan to shift its foreign policy focus toward China and Russia,” it observed. China, it said, will continue its economic support to Pakistan, which is its prime partner. China sees Pakistan as a prime partner “under the Belt and Road initiative, with land and sea projects worth billions of dollars (known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) under construction,” it observed. The Hindu, January 9, 2018

A Brexit supporter, he has been critical of EU’s trade policy

Rishi Sunak, the Conservative Member of Parliament from Richmond and son-in-law of Infosys co-founder Narayana Murthy, has joined the U.K. government in the latest reshuffle conducted by Prime Minister Theresa May. Mr. Sunak, who entered Parliament in 2015, will become the parliamentary undersecretary of state at the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, the government said on Tuesday afternoon.

Mr. Sunak was widely tipped as one of the backbench MPs likely to be brought into the government in the reshuffle. A strong supporter of Brexit, he has criticised the European Union’s “dismal record” of opening up new trade markets for member states, arguing that outside the customs union, Britain could “regain control” over its trade policy.

Other changes

Alok Sharma, another Indian-origin MP who was earlier the Minister of Housing, was made the Minister for Employment. Ms. May’s plans for the reshuffle got off to a rocky start this week, as Jeremy Hunt, the controversial Health Secretary, managed to retain his position while Justine Greening, earlier the Education Secretary, walked out of the government after declining a position at the Department of Work and Pensions. The loss of Ms. Greening was a particular blow for the government, which had been eager to highlight its stability and diversity following a difficult 2017. Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, held onto his position as did Home Secretary Amber Rudd. Penny Mordaunt, who took over from Priti Patel as International Development Secretary last year, also retained her position. The Hindu, January 10, 2018

Sirisena had sought Court’s advice on his term as President

Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court has clarified that President Maithripala Sirisena can stay in office only for five years, a week after he sought its opinion on whether he can serve a six-year term. “The Supreme Court has conveyed the opinion that the President’s term of office is five years,” a statement from the President’s office said on Monday, amid accusations by Mr. Sirsena’s political rivals that he was trying to undermine the 19-Amendment. The legislation, enacted after he assumed charge as President in 2015, stipulates a five-year term for Presidency.

Dispelling confusion

However, with his supporters and some in legal circles interpreting it as being applicable only to his successors, Mr. Sirisena’s office had said the inquiry sought to dispel any confusion in this regard. The Supreme Court held an open hearing on the matter last week with representations from both sides. . The Colombo-based Centre for Policy Alternatives made representations stating that the Amendment’s transitional provisions explicitly state that the five-year term limit applies equally to the sitting President. On the other hand, the Attorney General said President Sirisena, who assumed charge on January 9, 2015, had already commenced the six-year term when the 19th Amendment came into effect. The development came even as the coalition government helmed by Mr. Sirisena, along with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, completed three years in power. The Hindu, January 16, 2018

New report links immigration control to national security and the ability of immigrants to assimilate. Tougher implementation of immigration laws in the U.S. in the first year of the Trump presidency has resulted in 30% increase in arrests, compared to the previous year, but deportations have come down. While the overall number of undocumented people deported from the U.S. in 2017 fell from 2016, the number of Indians increased-460 were deported last year compared to 353 in 2016. In 2015, 311 undocumented Indians were deported, according to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Meanwhile, a report released by the administration linked its case for changing the immigration policy to national security and the ability of the immigrants to assimilate. An official speaking on the background on Tuesday morning said 402 of the 549 people convicted of international terrorism-related charges in the U.S. since September 11, 2001 were foreign-born. “Those who come to this country must love this country, should speak English…,” the official said, promising measures to ensure that only those who can contribute to the country’s prosperity and can assimilate will be allowed in.

Raids to continue

The ICE has said its enforcement raids targeting undocumented residents will continue in 2018. Last week, its agents raided dozens of stores and arrested over 20 undocumented workers. Describing the raids as “a harbinger of what’s to come”, Derek N. Benner, acting head of the ICE’s Homeland Security Investigation, had said: “This is what we’re gearing up for this year and what you’re going to see more and more is these large-scale compliance inspections, just for starters.” According to a Pew Research study in 2016, there could be as many as 5,00,000 undocumented Indians in the U.S. Tougher enforcement of immigration laws could affect them. They have entered the country by crossing the border illegally or have overstayed their visas, and there is not much India can do for them diplomatically, officials familiar with the situation told The Hindu. Indian consulates in the U.S issue travel documents for them on an urgent basis, when sought, said officials. In 2017, Indian consulates issued 1,229 travel documents, compared to 1,000 in 2016 and 850 in 2015. Deportation and issuance of emergency travel documents cannot be directly correlated. The U.S. deported 2, 26,000 people in 2017, compared to 2, 40,000 in 2016 and a vast majority of them were from Mexico. Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador were the other countries top on the list. The ICE has said the decrease in deportation is due to prevention at the border, and reduction in attempts by people to sneak into the U.S. illegally, given the tough enforcement The Hindu, January 17, 2018

Harendra Singh, a leading Indian-American restaurateur and a major donor to New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, secretly pleaded guilty to trying to bribe Mr. de Blasio to get a sweetheart lease deal for his eatery, according to court documents. Mr. Singh made the admission in sealed federal courtroom proceedings in October 2016, pleading guilty to bribery and wire fraud, New York Post reported, citing the court records. Without naming Mr. de Blasio, Mr. Singh stood in court and said he “gave and raised tens of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions to an elected New York City official in exchange for efforts by that official... and other city officials to obtain official action from a New York City agency that would benefit myself and restaurants I owned”, papers show. The city and Mr. Singh were close to completing a deal when he was arrested as part of a corruption investigation on Long Island, where he also subsequently pleaded guilty to bribing officials, the report said. Mr. de Blasio was never charged and a federal investigation into his fundraising ended with no criminal charges. He has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing. The Hindu, January 26, 2018