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In the run up to the Lok Sabha elections scheduled for 2014, Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in collaboration with the IBN Network conducted a nation-wide election tracker survey in the month of January 2014. The main aim of this exercise is to track the mood of the nation, on key socio political and economic issues in the run up to the national parliamentary elections due in 2014.
The first round of project was conducted in July with a grand nationwide study with a sample size of 30,000 respondents spread across 1120 locations 267 randomly selected Parliamentary constituencies in 18 States of India. This large-scale first round sample is being followed by smaller-sized survey culminating in the customary National Election Study that CSDS conducts during every Lok Sabha election.
The data for the survey was collected through face to face interviews amongst 18,591 voters spread across 1081 locations of 291 randomly selected Parliamentary constituencies in 18 States. 267 of the 291 parliamentary constituencies were the same as those sampled for the first round of tracker survey conducted by Lokniti in July 2013. 24 constituencies were sampled additionally for the second round. In each state, the Parliamentary constituencies and assembly segment/segments within a selected Parliamentary Constituency were randomly selected using the Probability Proportionate to Size sampling technique (PPS). In each Assembly segment three to four polling stations (differed from state to state) were selected using the systematic random sampling technique. A total of 27,025 voters randomly selected from the most updated electoral rolls were approached for the interview, of which 18,591 could be successfully interviewed. In round two, interviews in 267 parliamentary constituencies were conducted among the same set of respondents who were sampled for round one of the tracker survey (see Table 1)
Table 1: Lokniti-IBN Tracker (Round 2) - Distribution of Targeted and achieved sample
|
States
|
Number of PCs surveyed
|
No of ACs surveyed
|
Number of polling stations surveyed | Targeted sample | Achieved sample size |
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
24
|
25
|
75
|
1875
|
1506
|
|
Assam
|
7
|
7
|
28
|
700
|
462
|
|
Bihar
|
24
|
25
|
75
|
1875
|
1317
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
9
|
9
|
36
|
900
|
542
|
|
Delhi
|
7
|
12
|
48
|
1200
|
951
|
|
Gujarat
|
13
|
13
|
52
|
1300
|
836
|
|
Haryana
|
8
|
8
|
32
|
800
|
559
|
|
Jharkhand
|
10
|
11
|
44
|
1100
|
972
|
|
Karnataka
|
13
|
13
|
52
|
1300
|
830
|
|
Kerala
|
11
|
12
|
48
|
1200
|
807
|
|
Madhya Pradesh
|
15
|
17
|
51
|
1275
|
936
|
|
Maharashtra
|
30
|
30
|
90
|
2250
|
1224
|
|
Odisha
|
15
|
15
|
60
|
1500
|
978
|
|
Punjab
|
9
|
9
|
36
|
900
|
704
|
|
Rajasthan
|
17
|
17
|
51
|
1275
|
960
|
|
Tamil Nadu
|
16
|
16
|
60
|
1500
|
909
|
|
Uttar Pradesh
|
41
|
42
|
168
|
4200
|
2834
|
|
West Bengal
|
22
|
25
|
75
|
1875
|
1264
|
|
TOTAL
|
291
|
306
|
1081
|
27025
|
18591
|
The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi. The team included Anuradha Singh, Ashish Ranjan, Dhananjay Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, K.A.Q.A Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, Jyoti Mishra, Nitin Mehta, Rahul Verma, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. Professor Suhas Palshikar and Professor Sandeep Shastri provided their suggestions during the entire exercise. The survey was directed at the national level by Sanjay Kumar.
The survey was coordinated by scholars from the Lokniti Network: E Venkatesu (Andhra Pradesh), Subhrajeet Konwar (Assam), Rakesh Ranjan (Bihar), Anupama Saxena (Chhattisgarh), Biswajeet Mohanty (Delhi), Bhanu Parmar and Mahashweta Jani (Gujarat), Kushal Pal (Haryana) , Harishwar Dayal (Jharkhand), Veena Devi and Reetika Syal (Karnataka), Sajad Ibrahim (Kerala), Yatindra Singh Sisodia (Madhya Pradesh), Nitin Birmal (Maharashtra), Prabhat Mohanty and Pramod K Ray (Orissa), Jagroop Singh Sekhon (Punjab), Sanjay Lodha (Rajasthan), Ramajayam (Tamil Nadu), A.K. Verma, Asmer Beg, and Sudhir Kumar (Uttar Pradesh), Suprio Basu (West Bengal) .
The findings were disseminated through television and print media. Our television partners aired the findings of this round on CNN IBN and IBN 7 from 20th to 24th January 2014. You can read the findings by clicking the following links:
