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OUTLOOK-LOKNITI POLL ANALYSIS

Lokniti-CSDS analyzed the outcome of the 2018 assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram for Outlook magazine (December 24, 2018 edition). The analysis was primarily based on data generated by sample surveys conducted by Lokniti either immediately after voting (Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh) or just before it (Rajasthan and Telangana). In Mizoram, where no election survey was conducted by Lokniti, the analysis was based on aggregate data.

The survey data reported in the ­articles were weighted by the actual voteshares ­secured by the main parties/alliances in the elections. In the case of Chhattisgarh, limited use of weighted survey data was made since the vote estimates made by Lokniti were at ­divergence with the actual outcome.  


What Led To Congress' Win In Hindi Heartland
The assembly poll results are a red flag for the BJP, but not really an endorsement of the Congress. And the TRS victory in ­Telangana shows regional parties still have a key role to play in 2019.
SANDEEP SHASTRI, SUHAS PALSHIKAR,  SANJAY KUMAR


How Madhya Pradesh Voted
Congress wins by a whisker, through a grind of factors
YATINDRA SINGH SISODIA, ASHISH BHATT, SHREYAS SARDESAI


Interpreting The Verdict: What Led To BJP's Defeat In Rajasthan
The Congress could have done better as the BJP’s fortunes in Rajasthan were already ­diminishing 
SANJAY LODHA, NIDHI JAIN,  AMRIT PANDEY


Telangana Election Is Not Only TRS' Victory, But Also Failure Of Opposition 
Buoyed up by popular schemes, TRS crushes a flailing Opposition
H. VAGEESHAN, E. VENKATESU,  ANURAG JAIN


How Congress Managed To Win Over OBCs In Chhattisgarh
The nitty-gritty of Congress Chhattisgarh sweep
JYOTI MISHRA, VIBHA ATTRI,  SHAMSHAD ANSARI


Congress Failed To Highlight Its Feats In Mizoram
MNF back in power as Congress fails to hide failures, highlight feats
LALLIANCHHUNGA,  EZRELA DALIDIA FANAI


Download Report of Pre-Poll Survey Round 1 conducted in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh the second half of October 2018

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