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Study on Voting Behaviour is one of the specializations at Lokniti- programme of CSDS.
CSDS has conducted time-series National Election Studies (NES) since 1967. The NES – 2009 continues the decades old tradition of providing a valuable source of data on Indian elections and voting behaviour that has enriched the understanding of a large body of political scientists regarding the complex processes that shape voting behaviour in India. The goal of the 2009 study is to underline the significance of elections in the largest democracy of the world and understand the main reasons of why people vote the way they do and why some parties are more successful than others. The idea is to contribute to the development of scientific knowledge in regard to motivation of voters and meaning of elections by producing a rich set of data about the attitudes and opinions of voters on social, economic and political issues.
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| Objectives of NES – 2009 |
The objectives of the study are to provide an in-depth insight into the areas of:
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The social bases of voting |
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Political participation |
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Political communication |
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Political affiliation |
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Political efficacy |
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Trust in institutions |
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Public opinion and policy |
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Political and social attitudes |
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The incumbency/anti-incumbency debate |
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Leadership |
One of the key features of the NES – 2009 is that it will transcend traditional behavioural studies by focusing on long-term political concepts. The survey will also have 5 areas of thematic focus. These themes are:
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Democracy, Efficacy and Legitimacy |
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Political Choice |
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Economy |
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International Relations, Terrorism and National Security |
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Social and Political Values |
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| The 2009 Pilot Study |
As part of the NES – 2009 Pilot Study, 446 randomly sampled voters spread across 8 states were interviewed on March 22-23rd, 2009. The Pilot Study is conducted to check the efficacy and relevance of the proposed questions to be asked in the NES – 2009 Post Poll. Though a number of questions have been retained from earlier CSDS surveys, many new questions have also been drafted. After an in-depth analysis of the Pilot Study data, a number of changes will be incorporated in the new questions. After establishing that all questions are statistically valid and that they work in the diverse field conditions of India, the final questionnaire has been designed. |
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| The Methodology |
The study is primarily quantitative and based on survey method in tune with the Michigan Model of election studies. Though the primary data of the study will be collected by face-to-face interviews of sampled electorates in the state, data from secondary sources like state electoral office are also used. The components of research methodology are as follows:
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Research Instruments |
Questionnaire: Five different sets of standardized questionnaires will be used for the study of the electorates across India. Most questions are structured, with the exception of some semi-structured and open-ended questions. While each set of the Questionnaire cover one of the five areas of exclusive thematic focus, some core questions on political behaviour and background information of the respondent are common for each set.
Fieldwork Manual: A Fieldwork manual has been specially designed for field investigators with general instructions in how to conduct standard interviews. It also contain question specific instructions explaining skips patterns in questions and probing levels for right responses. The manual also have numerical codes for background variables like education, occupation, caste etc. with pre codes for some open-ended questions.
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Sampling |
The universe of NES – 2009 is all registered voters in India and the sample for the study would be more than 35,000 voters spread across the country. The sample for the study is drawn using the multistage stratified random sampling technique.
Stage I: Sampling of Parliamentary Constituencies (PCs)
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In the first stage, 537 parliamentary constituencies in 29 states out of the total 543 PCs in India have been selected. |
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6 PCs falling in union territories of Chandigarh, Puducherry, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu are left out of the sample for logistical reasons. |
Stage II: Sampling of Assembly Constituencies (ACs)
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In the second stage, sampling of assembly constituencies (ACs) within the 537 PCs has been done. |
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659 assembly segments are selected in 29 states on the basis of random circular sampling. |
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The number of ACs selected in each state are in proportion to the total number of ACs in the state. |
Stage III: Sampling of Polling Stations (PSs)
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The third stage of the sampling is that of selection of 4 PS within each sampled AC. The reason for selecting a fixed number of PS within all the sampled ACs is keeping in mind the logistics of conducting fieldwork operations. |
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2636 polling stations (PSs) are selected within the sampled AC by listing all the PSs within the sampled AC in the serial order followed by the Election Commission. The selection of PS is also done using the random circular sampling method. |
Stage IV: Sampling of Respondents
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The fourth and final stage in the sampling is the selection of the respondents. Respondents are selected from the latest electoral rolls of the selected polling stations. In every polling station, 20 respondents are selected from the electoral rolls using the Systematic Random Sampling technique. In each sampled polling station, a list of Sampled Respondents are prepared having the name, age, gender and address of each of the sampled respondents who are approached for interviews. |
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Substitution of respondents is not allowed under any circumstances. |
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Training |
Training Workshop: A 2-day training workshop is organized before the survey fieldwork starts at various places in the State to train the field investigators (FIs) and supervisors who carry out the fieldwork operations. Trainers conduct an intensive and interactive workshop for training field investigators on conducting face-to-face interview based on the questionnaire. The investigators undergo an orientation programme and train rigorously about interviewing techniques and communications with the respondents. A comprehensive and detailed interviewing guides, designed on the basis of the questionnaire and survey methodology, is prepared for the interviewers.
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Field work |
Procedures: The interviews of the selected electors are conducted at their residence or place of work. Field investigators on meeting the respondents explain the purpose of the interview, establish their identity and inform them about the expected research output of the study. The field investigators conduct the interview of the selected respondent in face-to-face situation using the questionnaires designed for this purpose. The investigators follow the standard and accepted practices of fieldwork and information collected are kept strictly confidential.
Supervision and Back-Checking: Rigorous quality controls at each stage of fieldwork and processing ensure consistently high standards of data collection and analysis for the survey. In spite of thorough care that is taken during the training of field investigators, the interviews conducted by them are properly supervised and the fieldwork done by them are always back-checked.
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Data Processing |
Data Coding & Cleaning: All questionnaires would be manually screened for consistency and quality check. The questionnaire will have codes (of pre-coded questions) that will be used for data punching. For open-ended responses verbatim listings will be made of 40% of the completed interviews. A member of the research team on the project, using these listings, will prepare a code-list and open-ended questions will be coded.
Data Entry & Analysis: Codes on the questionnaire are punched into an electronic database. Punched data are then edited through a specially written edit program, which checks for eligibility criteria, range and logic errors. Errors, if any, are printed as a 'dump' and manually verified with the source document to clean the data. Before processing, 100% accuracy is ensured in the punched data. The CSDS has agreed to make available software SPSS version. 16.0 for data tabulation and any analysis that needs to be run on it.
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