About the Survey
This analysis is based on the second round of the pre-election tracker survey conducted in Uttarakhand by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, for ABP News. The survey was conducted from January 15 through January 20, 2017 among 1845 voters in 98 locations (polling stations) spread across 20 assembly constituencies. These are the same constituencies and polling stations where Lokniti had conducted the first round of the tracker survey in December 2016. The sampling design adopted was Multi-stage random sampling. The assembly constituencies where the survey was conducted were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size method. Thereafter, five polling stations within each of the sampled constituencies were selected using the systematic random sampling method. Finally, the respondents were also randomly selected from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling stations.
Before going to the field for the survey, field investigators were imparted training about the survey method and interviewing techniques at a day-long training workshop held in Srinagar, Garhwal. The field investigators conducted face-to-face interviews of the respondents in Hindi asking them a set of standardized questions. The duration of an interview was about 15 minutes. The survey could not be conducted at two locations in two assembly seats. At some locations the non-availability of sampled respondents or difficulty in finding households necessitated replacements or substitutions. Meanwhile, inaccessibility of some of the areas of the state due to snowfall resulted in a low completion rate in some constituencies.
The achieved sample has been weighted by age-groups, gender, locality, religion, and caste group, based on Census 2011. The poll has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.
Profile of Achieved Sample in Uttarakhand
|Survey Sample (%)||Census 2011 (%)|
|Scheduled Caste (18+ years)||13.0||17.4|
|Women (18+ years)||45.5||50.1|
|Urban (18+ years)||33.1||31.9|
The fieldwork of the survey was coordinated by Dr. Rakesh Negi, Assistant Professor (Ad hoc) at Hemvati Nandan Bahuguna Garhwal University, Srinagar. The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Lokniti. The team included Asmita Aasaavari, Arushi Gupta, Dhananjay Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, Souradeep Banerjee, Shashwat Dhar, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. The survey was directed by Prof. Sanjay Kumar, Prof. Suhas Palshikar and Prof. Sandeep Shastri of Lokniti.
Survey details in a nutshell
|Conducted by||Lokniti-CSDS, for ABP News|
|Dates of fieldwork||Jan 15-20, 2017|
|No. of Assembly Constituencies covered||20|
|No. of Polling Stations (Locations) covered||98|
|No. of interviews conducted (Sample size)||1845|
|Overall Margin of Error||+/-3.3|
|Sampling method||Multi-stage random sampling|
|Fieldwork method||Standardized face-to-face interview in Hindi|