This analysis is based on a Post-Poll survey conducted in Uttar Pradesh by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, for ABP News. The survey was conducted from February 17 through February 24, 2017 among 1859 voters in 100 locations spread across 20 assembly constituencies. All constituencies and the polling stations within them were the same as those where Lokniti had conducted the first two rounds of the pre-poll tracker survey in early December 2016 and mid-January 2017. The sampling design adopted was Multi-stage random sampling. The assembly constituencies where the survey was conducted were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size method. Thereafter, five polling stations within each of the sampled constituencies were selected using the systematic random sampling method. Finally, the respondents were also randomly selected from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling stations.
Before going to the field for the survey, field investigators were imparted training about the survey method and interviewing techniques at a day-long training workshop held in Srinagar, Garhwal. The field investigators conducted face-to-face interviews of the respondents in Hindi asking them a set of standardized questions. The duration of an interview was about 35-40 minutes. At some locations the non-availability of sampled respondents or difficulty in finding households necessitated replacements or substitutions. It must be noted that the post poll survey conducted by CSDS is very different from an exit poll in which voters are approached outside the polling booth on voting day. Instead voters were approached by the field investigators for an interview at their place of residence after votes had been cast in their respective constituencies, but before the results were known. The achieved sample has been weighted by gender, locality, religion, and caste group, based on Census 2011 information. The poll has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 points.
Profile of achieved sample
|Survey Sample (%)||Census 2011 (%)|
|Scheduled Caste (18+ years)||35.5||29.8|
|Women (18+ years)||40.8||48.3|
|Urban (18+ years)||29.5||38.3|